About
The credit-to-GDP gap data set aims at quantifying the notion of “excessive credit” in a simple way. It serves as an early warning indicator for potential banking crises or severe distress.
The data set covers 44 economies, starting at earliest in 1961 and captures total borrowing from all domestic and foreign sources. The credit-to-GDP gap is defined as the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-run trend. The trend is derived using a one-sided (ie backward-looking) Hodrick-Prescott filter.
To facilitate comparability across countries, the credit-to-GDP ratio, as published in the BIS database of total credit to the private non-financial sector, is used as input data. However, it also means that the credit-to-GDP gaps published by the BIS may differ from those used by national authorities as part of their countercyclical capital buffer decisions.
The gap indicator was adopted as a common reference point under Basel III to guide the build-up of countercyclical capital buffers. Authorities are expected, however, to apply judgment in the setting of the buffer in their jurisdiction after using the best information available to gauge the build-up of system-wide risk rather than relying mechanistically on the credit-to-GDP guide. For instance, national authorities may form their policy decisions using credit-to-GDP ratios that are based on data series that differ from the BIS series, leading to credit-to-GDP gaps that differ from those published by the BIS.
For the technical features of the data set, see "Recent enhancements to the BIS statistics", BIS Quarterly Review, September 2016. Please also refer to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision page on the countercyclical capital buffer.
Methodology
Research and publications
Emerging markets' reliance on foreign bank credit
This article examines the importance of foreign banks in the provision of credit to emerging market borrowers. It documents this along two dimensions: the share of total credit provided and the concentration of claims from different foreign banking systems. The share of credit from foreign banks in total credit to emerging market economies has fallen since the Great Financial Crisis, but still stands at 15-20% on average, with the remainder provided by domestic banks or non-bank creditors. ...
A new database on general government debt
We present a new data set on credit to the general government sector for 26 advanced and 14 emerging market economies. The main benefit of these new BIS series for "public debt" is that they provide data with similar characteristics from across the globe, facilitating crosscountry comparisons. Another distinctive feature is that the ...
How much income is used for debt payments? A new database for debt service ratios
Debt service ratios (DSRs) provide important information about the interactions between debt and the real economy, as they measure the amount of income used for interest payments and amortisations. Given this pivotal role, the BIS has started to produce and release aggregate DSRs for the total private non-financial sector for 32 countries from ...
